Brendan Shaw
“What’s clear is many of the world’s voters don’t want things to stay the same."
– TIME
“Lingering consumer anger over high prices is hurting governments in advanced economies even though inflation is subsiding to normal levels, as a once-in-a-generation surge in costs leaves a toxic legacy for incumbent politicians."
- Financial Times, “Consumer anger over high prices piles pressure on politicians”, 11 November 2024.
"The importance of competent government is perhaps the most important of the many painful lessons that are being learned during the pandemic.”
- Prof Elizabeth Fisher & Prof Sidney A. Shapiro. 2021. “Covid-19 and Competent Government"
At the start of this year many commentators noted that this year would be the world’s mega election year. As we round out 2024, it's turned out to be a wild ride for democracy in a year that has perhaps demonstrated democracy's strengths as well as its weaknesses.
The year is ending as it started, with controversial elections, protests in the streets calling for the removal of a government leader (Bangladesh in January, South Korea in December) and, at the time of writing, the year is finishing with both the South Korean president and the French prime minister facing a stand-off with their parliaments that may seem them sacked.
More than 70 national presidential and legislature elections were being held across the world this year, which is probably a record in human history.
But it wasn’t just the number of elections this year that was unique, but also the proportion of the world's population that have been going to the polls. The estimate is that around half of the Earth’s population have had the opportunity to vote in national elections this year. With many highly populated countries like India, Indonesia, Pakistan and the United States all facing elections, it meant that the pool of voters at a global level expressing their democratic voice - and saying which direction they wanted the world to go - has been historic.
The voters didn't always get what they wanted and often were not heard depending on where they live. However, in many cases, people at least got the chance to turn up and have their say.
Another factor that made elections so important this year was that many countries at the centre of current geopolitical tensions were holding them. Countries like Iran, Russia, Taiwan, Ukraine, and the United States were facing elections this year. In the end, Russia's election was probably a forgone conclusion, and Ukraine continued to postpone its election due to the war there with Russia.
The world has become much more democratic over the last 200 years, so the buildup to 2024 being the world's mega year of elections could have been expected.
Source: Our World in Data, "Democracy", University of Oxford, https://ourworldindata.org/democracy, accessed 30/11/2024.
Ballot box highlights of 2024
So, how did it all go? What did the results look like and what does it mean for politics and democracy going forward?
While space doesn’t allow a full report on all of 2024's 70+ elections (TIME magazine has a good blog on election results here), some of the election results this year were highlights, either because they were historic, or they signalled fundamental change, or were an upset or shock that few saw coming. Then there were some elections that were notable just because they saw peaceful transitions in leadership or governments just being returned to office.
Asia saw a range of major electoral upsets, surprises and aftershocks:
In January, Bangladesh’s national parliamentary elections returned Sheikh Hasina as prime minister, albeit in controversial circumstances after much of the opposition was harassed and imprisoned, coupled with allegations of voter fraud. Hasina was subsequently chased out of office after widespread protests a few months later, fleeing the country in August to take refuge in India.
In February Prabowo Subianto won the Indonesian presidential election, which was expected. Prabowo, a former special forces commander in the Indonesian military and former defence minister, took office in October with his vice-president being the son of Prabowo's predecessor.
Also in February, former prime minister Imran Khan’s party had a shock win in Pakistan’s national parliamentary elections, winning the most seats in the national assembly. However, rival traditional political parties friendly with the military and traditional elites in the country managed to form a government. Allegations of ballot rigging persisted, and Khan remained in prison accused of corruption and terrorism offences.
While Narendra Modi was re‑elected Indian prime minister in April, in a major shock his Hindu nationalist BJP party unexpectedly lost its majority in the Indian parliament and had to form a coalition government with other parties to stay in office. Prior to the election, Modi had confidently campaigned on the expectation he would win a parliamentary super majority.
Meanwhile in September Sri Lanka’s sitting government was kicked out of office by the people through the ballot box in favour of corruption fighter and former Marxist, Anur Kumara Dissanayake, who was elected president. He ran against the incumbent traditional political parties in Sri Lanka. The result was interpreted as a rejection by the Sri Lankan people of establishment parties, corruption and economic mismanagement. More recently, Dissanayake’s party has just won a two-thirds majority in parliamentary elections in November.
In Taiwan’s election in January, a China sceptic, Lai Ching-te, was elected president, while the more China-friendly KMT fell short, coming second in the poll. Given global geopolitical tensions, the election was closely watched by countries all over the world, with countries like China and the United States exchanging commentary on the results.
In April South Korea’s controversial Conservative government lost the national assembly elections in a landslide to the opposition party with the highest voter turnout (67%) in the country’s history. South Korean national assembly elections are often seen as a referendum on the incumbent president, with the current president, Yoon Suk-Yeol, facing criticism on a range of issues. At the time of writing in December, Yoon had shocked everyone by imposing martial law without warning, only to withdraw it hours later after the opposition-dominated national assembly and his cabinet voted against it, amid protests from thousands in the streets camped out in front of the assembly building.
Japan’s ruling LDP also unexpectedly lost its parliamentary majority in that country’s October elections – something that has only happened twice before since the Second World War, leaving Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba facing a weakened position in minority government.
Electoral shocks and transformations occurred in other parts of the world:
Russia had its presidential election in March, but it was hardly a surprise there to see Vladimir Putin returned to office, apparently winning 90% of the vote, although questions were raised about the result’s authenticity.
In May the African National Congress lost its parliamentary majority on the back of corruption allegations and poor economic performance in South Africa’s elections. This is historic, as it is the first time the ANC has lost its majority since Nelson Mandela led the party to power in 1994 after the end of apartheid.
Claudia Sheinbaum was elected Mexico’s first female president in June. She was seen as a continuation of the administration of the previous president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, having previously served in his administration. This is significant because, despite today having very high female representation in parliament, Mexico has had only male presidents over the last 200 years, while many other countries in Latin America had had female leaders. Gender issues and women's status in society played a big role in the election.
Also in June, the European parliament elections saw a significant shift in support to right-wing parties across the European Union, on the back of a rise in populism and anti-immigration sentiments. However, centrist parties managed to maintain their majority in the newly elected parliament.
July saw France's president, Emmanuel Macron, call an unexpected snap national assembly election which resulted in a ‘stunning’ result where French voters rejected Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally. Left-wing parties won stronger support than expected. Macron’s own centrist party fell short of a majority, meaning the French government is now a coalition centrist and conservative parties. At the time of writing in December, French prime minister, Michel Barnier - Macron's pick - looks like being swept away by a 'no confidence' motion in the assembly brought on by both the left-wing and far right-wing parties.
Across the English Channel, July also saw Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party win a landslide victory in the United Kingdom’s parliamentary elections, with Starmer becoming prime minister after 14 years of at times turbulent Conservative rule. Starmer and Labour have already seen a significant drop in popularity since the election due to a series of governing mistakes and economic policy decisions.
Still in July, Iran was unexpectedly thrust into a presidential election when sitting president Ebrahim Raisi was killed in plane crash in May. Almost as unexpected was the election result, where the solitary moderate candidate on the list of approved candidates, Masoud Pezeshkian, won the election. He beat six other candidates - all conservatives and all chosen by the ruling conservative clerical theocracy. Unexpectedly, Pezeshkian is now president.
In September, Austria’s elections saw the National Freedom Party secure the first win by a far-right party since the Second World War. The Freedom Party's campaign was based on 'Fortress Austria', tapping into anxieties about immigration, inflation, controls after the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and calls for a more homogenous nation.
Elections in Moldova in October and November were an example where an incumbent was returned, with pro-EU president Maia Sandu winning a second term in office, and voters supporting a move towards joining the European Union. In the run up to the election various governments and international observers accused Russia of election interference to support Sandu’s pro-Russia opponent.
Similarly in November, Romanian elections were held with a shock win for a pro-Russia presidential candidate who up until then had been little fancied and only campaigned on social media. Against the backdrop, again, of allegations of Russian interference in the election, at the time of writing the Romanian Supreme Court is considering calling a recount of the results, could potentially declare the result void and require a re-run of the election.
Another Eastern European country, Georgia, has been in chaos since its elections in November. The pro-Russian, anti-European Union Georgian Dream party was apparently re-elected in the election. However, protests have broken out, opposition MPs are boycotting the new parliament and alleging fraud, the country's president has backed the opposition and is calling for new elections, and various western governments have cut ties with the government. There have been numerous allegations of voter intimidation, vote-buying and manipulation, harassment of observers and vote rigging, and the president has accused neigbouring Russia of foreign interference in the election.
Of course, in November Donald Trump secured an amazing political comeback to win the presidential election of the United States a second time by beating his opponent Vice President Kamala Harris in November. Trump had previously lost the presidency to Harris' boss, Joe Biden in 2020. Trump campaigned promising stronger immigration policies, better economic management and 'making America great again'. The US election was all the more amazing, given President Biden stepped down mid-campaign in July after a disastrous presidential debate to allow Vice President Harris to eventually become the Democratic candidate. In the end, Trump triumphed.
Finally, in Ireland the prime minister's gamble on an early election at the end of November seems to have backfired. Taoiseach (prime minister) Simon Harris slumped in popularity in the lead-up to election day. Harris had brought forward the election, scheduled for March 2025, to capitalise on Fine Gael’s surge in support since he became Taoiseach in April. But a series of gaffs and missteps before the election led to deterioration in his popularity, meaning that he may not be able to hang on as leader. With all the seats in parliament now counted, Harris' Fine Gael party has come third, well behind his previous coalition partner, Fianna Fáil, and just behind Sinn Fein. It looks unlikely Harris can stay on as taoiseach.
Incumbents getting thrown out
As 2024 draws to a close, many commentators have noted that there is a trend across the world where incumbent governments are losing office where free and fair elections are being held. As the Financial Times noted, every governing party facing election in a developed country this year has lost vote share, and this is the first time this has ever happened.
Clearly, a lot of people in the world today aren’t happy with their lot and are holding their governments responsible.
Geopolitical and social factors have played a role, but predominantly the issue has been economic performance, the cost-of-living crisis that people have felt worldwide, and a recurring feeling in many parts of the world where people feel their economic circumstances have got more difficult, not less.
Source: Our World in Data, “Inflation of consumer prices”, University of Oxford, https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/inflation-of-consumer-prices, accessed 30/11/2024.
Inflation has got worse in the last three or four years. This has made many people poorer in real terms and governments have been punished in countries where voters have decided that the government should bear the responsibility for it. High-income countries are particularly vulnerable here, because their inflation rates in the last few years haven't been this high since the 1980s.
Inflation and the resulting cost-of-living crisis has been caused by a range of global events like post-Covid pandemic supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine, rising oil prices, rising food and commodity prices, deglobalisation efforts and US-China decoupling, geopolitical issues, and climate change, leaving many people feeling they are doing it tough. Governments around the world have copped a flogging as a result, especially if they are seen to have not done enough.
Other factors have led to some shock results in national elections this year. Countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and South Africa have seen governments lose votes or office if they were seen as part of the problem in economic management or viewed as corrupt. Iran and South Korea saw conservative politicians replaced by more moderate ones, although Iran initially had its lowest voter turnout out ever (albeit increasing significantly in the second round of voting), while South Korea had its highest voter turnout ever.
A common theme across many elections has been voters rejecting traditionalist, establishment parties and leaning towards new disruptors or parties that would change the way politics is done. Austria, Iran, Japan, Pakistan, South Africa and Sri Lanka are all examples where this occurred in different ways, as is Bangladesh if you include the subsequent protests and ousting of the prime minister there.
Immigration has also played a role in some elections, particularly in Austria, France, the United Kingdom and the United States where voters felt that governments were not doing enough to control the number of immigrants coming into the country. In these countries, right wing candidates managed to varying degrees to convince a portion of voters that high immigration was one of the reasons for poor economic performance and inflation.
Intergenerational politics and gender issues also played a role in some election results, whether it was young women in South Korea turning on the conservative government there, women in Mexico finally getting their first female president, or young men breaking to support Donald Trump in the United States. CNN notes that nearly half the countries holding elections this year have a population where more than 50% of the citizens are Gen-Z or Millennials.
Source: Lou Robinson. 2024. “At least 70 countries have elections in 2024. A guide in maps and charts”, CNN, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/08/world/global-elections-2024-maps-charts-dg/index.html, accessed 30/11/2024.
All in all, 2024 has seen a barrage of elections where there were upsets, shocks and generally people not happy with the way the world is going, and the aftershocks of a couple of elections still going on.
Looking ahead
So, what does this mean for 2025?
Following this year where so many elections saw incumbent governments lose office on the back of cost-of-living crises, gender issues, and young people wanting change in the future, many countries are facing elections in 2025.
In 2025, national elections are scheduled to be held in many countries, including Australia, Belarus, Cameroon, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Germany (unexpectedly), Ecuador, Egypt, Iraq, Niger, Norway, the Philippines, Poland, and Singapore.
It will be interesting to see how governments go in 2025, and whether the trend of incumbents facing the ire of an unhappy electorate continues into next year.
For incumbent governments today, a few lessons can be gleaned from 2024:
economic management and the cost-of-living crisis are major factors, as are peoples' feelings of safety and security
focus on what people need and want - both now and in the future, and
with all the problems in the world today, people want governments that can competently govern, both for now and for the future.
As Robert Shrimsley from the Financial Times argues, redressing anger in the electorate will be the key to electoral success and in preserving democracy in the future.
On that note, despite everything going on and despite a generally cranky global electorate, I wish you a restive and happy festive season in 2024, and hope you come back refreshed for a fabulous 2025.
A few governments probably hope you will feel the same way next year as well.
All the best for 2025.
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